ATDMF

Prévisions = anticipations

Philippe — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 05:41:27 +0000

Afin de réaliser des anticipations, suivez la formation ATDMF de base. Vous apprenderez à faire des prévisions (ce qui n’est proposé par aucune autre approche de l’analyse technique). Pour vous en convaincre, il suffit de comparer nos analyses et celles publiées par ailleurs.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

S & P 500: choppy without main trend

Philippe — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 05:33:18 +0000

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below MY, a collapse could develop and amplify. 666, 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. With a bearish no-crossover as a status for our MACD (end of period), LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period).

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a strong resistance. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet a bullish A type. Our stochastic is overbought and our MACD is neutral. Below MM, LM will be our main support.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance

Bet: decline with a close below MM and bearish with a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD.

R = MQ (1212), UM (1253); S = MM (1020), LM (788), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

Medium term: not higher than UW

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is neutral but a bearish no-crossover could develop. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. Above MW our targets are 1132 level (June 2010 high) and UW. If MW proves to be a resistance (end of period) then LW will be our main objective.

Idea: tonight close will give the way

Bet: not higher than June level

R = MW (1100), 1132, UW (1182); S= MW /MM (1020)

Short term: same analysis than medium term

On a daily basis; above 1100, UD will be our next objective. Otherwise, LD is our main support.

Idea: could turn bearish if 1100 act as a resistance

Bet: not higher than UD

R = UD (1125); S= MD (1079), LD (1033)

Conclusion: next status could be a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD….

Formation pratique au trading intraday avec l’ATDMF

Philippe — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 05:12:46 +0000

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Renseignements et inscription atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

10Y T-Note: a technical correction is not ruled out

Philippe — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 05:09:34 +0000

Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. The spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and LM is flat. But, a technical correction towards MM is not ruled out.

Idea: bullish for some years

Bet: a technical correction until year‘s end could develop

R = 128.7; S = MM (119.5)

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: more decline below PW

R = 128.7; S = PW (123.84), MW (121.78)

Short term: UD / LD spread could be minimal soon

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. M23 will stay up. A decline will be only a technical correction.

Idea: decline as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: lower for one week or more.

R = MD (125.41), UD (126.65); S = PW (123.84)

Conclusion: a technical correction until early 2011 could develop.

€ / $: bearish below 1.2510

Philippe — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 05:27:32 +0000

Long term: towards LQ is likely

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and could stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will be without main trend. With an overbought status for our stochastic (early 2011), 1.164 (2005 low) is the first objective and LY is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. With this hypothesis, LQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. With a decline during this period, a bearish no-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and MACD. LQ will be our first objective.

Idea: bearish as long as our quarterly stochastic is not oversold (at least for 3 periods)

Bet: LQ is not our main support

R = MM (1.3604); S= LM (1.2031), LQ (1.1567), LY (.9182)

Medium term: below PW, LW is our next target

On a weekly basis; in September, a bearish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. If PW fail as a support, our MACD will be overbought and LW will be our next objective.

Idea: bearish below PW

Bet: below PW if our weekly stochastic is overbought (end of period)

R = MD (1.285); S = PW (1.251), LW (1.1963)

Short term: bearish no-crossover with PD?

On a daily basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as MD proves to be a resistance, a weak bearish no-crossover could emerge. If PD proves to be a resistance, a bearish parallel pattern will be in hand.

Idea: above PD, MD is our next objective

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

R = PD (1.2764), MD (1.285); S = PW (1.251), LD (1.2458)

Conclusion: LW (1.1963) is our main target in October.

Crude oil: bearish at the end of 2010?

Philippe — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 04:57:03 +0000

Yearly trend: higher?

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a bubble pattern. The current status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: end of the pattern when LY will be up

Bet: 87.15 (2010 high) is a far away strong resistance

Long term: bearish no-crossover status for our quarterly stochastic and MACD is expected

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. A bearish no-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and for our MACD at the end of the period. LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next month. As long as PM proves to be a support, a recovery could develop. Otherwise, LM will be our next objective.

Idea: main trend in early October

Bet: 82.97 (August high) is a strong resistance

R= 82.97, UM (93.97); S= PM (60.44), LM (43.11)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking and not minimal. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. With our 7 / 23 weekly moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. LW is our main target.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: nothing to do this week

R = MW (76.31); S = LW (69.1)

Short term: bearish without pattern

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is wide. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Weakness could amplify until mid-September.

Idea: MD will act as a resistance

Bet: more bear strength below PD.

R = MD (76.74); S = PD (70.76)

Conclusion: weakness on a medium term basis.

Bonne rentrée

Philippe — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 10:07:08 +0000

Toujours plus nombreux. Depuis le début de l’année Google Analytics indique que les connexions se sont faites depuis 73 pays (liste à partir de Do you come from). Le taux d’augmentation de connexions est de + 20%.

Les prochaines semaines vont être passionnantes.

Pour en profiter pleinement, participez à nos formations ATDMF 2010.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Philippe Cahen

S & P 500: bear trend in the last quarter

Philippe — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 04:56:52 +0000

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a strong resistance. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet a bullish A type. At the end of August, the status for our stochastic and MACD will give the way (up or down) for the trend. Below MM, LM will be our main support.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance

Bet: decline with a close below MM and bearish with a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD.

R = MQ (1212), UM (1252); S = MM (1009), LM (768), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

Medium term: UW / LW spread is maximal

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is neutral but a bearish A type crossover could develop. Next week, the status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought. LW is our main target. Otherwise, MW is an objective.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: choppy

R = MW (1105); S= MM (1009)

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A bearish crossover PD / MD occurred with a bullish trend for UD. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The bear move could amplify.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: MM will act as a support.

R = MD (1093); S= MM (1009)

Conclusion: next status will be a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD….

10 Y T-Note: technical correction???

Philippe — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 05:03:00 +0000

Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. The spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and LM is flat. 128.7 (Historical High) could be our next target. But, a technical correction towards MM is not ruled out with an overbought status for our stochastic.

Idea: bullish for some years

Bet: a technical correction until years‘s end could develop

R = 128.7; S = MM (119.47)

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A qualification in bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: more decline below PW

R = 128.7; S = PW (123.08)

Short term: warning

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover occurred with PD. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. As long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. Next target will be PW.

Idea: MD could fail as a support

Bet: in September a bullish no-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 daily moving averages.

R = UD (126.94); S = PD (125.3), MD (124.95)

Conclusion: a short term correction could develop soon (inflation???)

Formations ATDMF : analyse technique, trading, money management

Philippe — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 06:20:32 +0000

Que vous souhaitiez vous initier à l’ATDMF pour pouvoir vous positionner sur tous les supports ou si vous souhaitez intervenir en intraday, nous vous proposons des formations adaptées à vos besoins.

Durée 3 jours pour la formation de base et 3 / 5 jours pour la formation intraday. Horaires flexibles afin de prendre le temps nécessaire à une bonne compréhension. Semaine et week-end.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr