S&P 500: not bearish before mid-August

Catégorie [ S & P 500 ]

Long term basis: technical correction?

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period. Next period, a new status is not ruled out. As long as our M7 is up, the main pattern is always a bullish parallel pattern. UY is the far away maximal target. Below MY, a collapse could develop.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bullish A type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not a reference one. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving is a PEI. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: towards UQ as long as PM proves to be a support

Bet: with an overbought status for our MACD, PM will be our next target.

 

R = PY (1504), UQ (1614);    S = PM (1173), MQ (1216)

 

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal and expending. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Our monthly moving averages are up. No bear pattern could develop.

Idea: decline as long as MW = resistance.

Bet: MW is a strong resistance (bearish pre-parallel in August?).

 

R = MW (1317);    S= PM (1173)

 

Short term: MD = first resistance

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. Above MD, MW is our next target.

Idea: focus on M7 trend.

Bet: nothing to do until early July.

 

R = MD (1293), MW (1317);                   S= LD (1250), PM (1173)

 

Conclusion:  weak, as long as MW (1317) = resistance.