Euro-Bund contract could collapse…

Catégorie [ Contrat € - Bund ]

Long term: warning

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. A bearish divergence could develop with our stochastic before year’s end and next year with our MACD.

On a monthly basis, PM failed as a support. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. As long as MM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: quarterly bearish divergence is in hand => MQ or below.

Bet:  collapse below MM

R= UM (132.66)    S= MM (125.04), MQ (119.17)


Medium term: bearish

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), Bollinger bands spread is not a reference one.  A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. As long as our MACD is not oversold, MM is our first target.

Idea:  as long as MW = resistance, a up move is only a technical recovery

Bet: towards MM or lower.  

R = MW (130.18);   S = MM (125.04)


Short term (March 2011 contract): like a bearish parallel

On a daily basis, a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern is in hand.  

Idea: bearish as long as our MACD is not oversold.

Bet: recovery above PD.

R = MD (129.26)   S = MM (125.04)


Conclusion: a collapse is not ruled out.


Position: Previous: short below PM (continuous contract); in progress: short, Next: hold on + stop-loss (MD)