Poursuite de la pentification de la courbe des taux

Contrat Euribor

Long term: higher

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. Stochastic and MCD are oversold. With Bollinger bands, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: out below PW (98.595)

R = UW (98.918), +++;        S= PW (98.595)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules but out below PW (98.595)

R = UW (98.918);            S = PW (98.595)

 

 

Short term: rise / bullish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. The status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages and stochastic is a bullish non-crossover. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bullish non-crossover. UW (98.918) is our first resistance.

Idea: towards UW or higher.

R = UW (98.918);    S = MD (98.676)

 

Conclusion: higher.

 

Contrat Eurobund

Long term: toppish

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is flat. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. Within 2 or 3 periods, a bearish divergence will be the status for stochastic and MACD. MQ (117.47) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline will develop when our stochastic will be overbought (month’s end).

Idea: not bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought.

           

Medium term: flat?

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bearish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Below LW (121.36), decline could continue without a bearish ATDMF pattern.

Idea: new bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD

R = MW (123.63);   S = LW (121.36), -

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis (June contract), the spread UD / LD is not wide. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. UD (123.09) is our main resistance and LW (121.09) is our first support.

Idea: decline as long as our stochastic is not oversold

R = UD (123.09);   S = LW (121.09)

 

Conclusion: less bearish than 10 Y T-Note (monthly / quarterly basis)