BCE : pas de baisse => € fort (de + en +) (24/4/2008)


Tout va pour le mieux (pour ceux qui ont suivi nos conseils de la semaine dernière). Il n’est pas trop tard pour profiter de la situation : les spreads taux $ / € vont encore augmenter. La baisse des taux de la BCE n’est pas vraiment anticipée par les opérateurs.


Contrats de taux à 3 mois (US et Euro)


Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.


Contrat Eurodollar 3 mois (June 2008)


Long term: less bullish

On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY (3 and 2 periods ago). This pattern is very bullish.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but shrinking. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strongly up. Next target could be 98.255 (2008 high).

On a monthly basis (June 08 contract); for our 7 / 23 months moving averages, the dynamic is up. A bullish crossover PM / MM is in progress. If LM is down by month’s end, the pattern will be a bullish parallels one. Otherwise the pattern will be a bullish bubble.

Idea: technical correction on a monthly chart.


Medium term: lower?

On a weekly basis, MW failed as a support. A bearish B type crossover is not ruled out with our 7 /23 weeks moving averages. Below 96.985 (last week low), our next target is LW (96.03).

Idea: below 96.985?


Short term: decline

On a daily basis, a bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The spread UD / LD was not minimal when a close below LD occurred. Weekly chart is not bearish. A decline is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, this move will continue.

Idea: 96.895 is our main support.


Conclusion: see our medium term analysis.


Contrat Euribor 3 mois (June 2008).


Long term: bearish

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Stochastic is overbought and it will be the same status for MACD at the end of April.

Idea: lower for some months.


Medium term: bear trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide but increasing. Our indicators are bearish. No recovery is expected within one month.

Idea: lower without technical recovery.


Short term: bearish parallels pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each indicator is strong.

Idea: use bearish parallels pattern rules.


Conclusion: Very bullish for € Vs $.